Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.84543e-05           1           8          77          13           1        C3.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.86254e-05           3          33          59           5           0        C1.2
GOES Xray  =   1.52378e-07           1           7          82          10           0        C2.5
est. ISN   =       48.0000           4          21          63           9           3        C2.0
 
together                             2.00       17.50       70.25        9.25        1.00     C2.1
 
realized                                                                                      C1.1