Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.20657e-05          11          70          19           0           0        B5.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.09193e-05          10          76          14           0           0        B5.4
GOES Xray  =   7.44322e-08           7          64          27           2           0        B7.9
est. ISN   =       55.0000           2          22          61          14           1        C2.5
 
together                             7.50       58.00       30.25        4.00        0.25     B7.4
 
realized                                                                                      C1.7