Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.88074e-05           1           4          79          15           1        C3.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.30631e-05           3          18          74           5           0        C1.7
GOES Xray  =   1.58981e-07           1           5          77          17           0        C3.4
est. ISN   =       63.0000           5          12          56          25           2        C3.7
 
together                             2.00       10.25       71.50       15.50        0.75     C2.9
 
realized                                                                                      C4.5