Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.65765e-05           5          46          47           2           0        B9.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.02201e-05           5          27          63           5           0        C1.5
GOES Xray  =   6.81915e-08           6          67          27           0           0        B7.1
est. ISN   =       87.0000           1           0          66          28           5        C6.0
 
together                             4.00       35.00       51.00        8.75        1.25     C1.3
 
realized                                                                                      C1.1