Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.82155e-05           2           4          71          23           0        C4.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.61095e-05           1           2          78          18           1        C4.3
GOES Xray  =   2.18193e-07           1           1          63          32           3        C6.5
est. ISN   =       102.000           1           1          66          27           5        C6.0
 
together                             1.00        2.25       69.50       25.00        2.25     C5.2
 
realized                                                                                      C5.3