Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.25632e-05           1           1          69          23           6        C6.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.93023e-05           1           0          69          29           1        C6.1
GOES Xray  =   2.16575e-07           1           1          63          31           4        C6.7
est. ISN   =       113.000           1           0          55          36           8        C8.4
 
together                             0.25        0.75       64.50       29.75        4.75     C6.5
 
realized                                                                                      C2.2