Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.72018e-05           2           2          78          18           0        C4.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.84860e-05           2           7          83           7           1        C2.8
GOES Xray  =   1.92005e-07           1           2          77          19           1        C4.0
est. ISN   =       119.000           1           0          51          41           7        C9.2
 
together                             1.00        3.00       72.50       21.25        2.25     C4.4
 
realized                                                                                      C1.3