Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   6.27401e-05           1           0          48          42           9        M1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.55885e-05           1           1          45          43          10        M1.0
GOES Xray  =   2.69882e-07           1           0          33          55          11        M1.7
est. ISN   =       108.000           1           0          59          33           7        C8.2
 
together                             0.25        0.50       46.75       43.25        9.25     M1.0
 
realized                                                                                      C6.3