Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.18509e-05           1           0          37          50          12        M1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.42500e-05           1           1          62          33           3        C7.5
GOES Xray  =   2.23529e-07           1           0          68          29           2        C6.6
est. ISN   =       123.000           1           0          51          41           7        C9.2
 
together                             0.25        0.50       55.00       38.25        6.00     C8.6
 
realized                                                                                      C2.1