Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.25463e-05           1           0          40          47          12        M1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.89087e-05           1           0          70          27           2        C5.0
GOES Xray  =   2.42953e-07           1           0          41          51           7        M1.2
est. ISN   =       109.000           1           0          59          33           7        C8.2
 
together                             0.25        0.25       53.00       39.50        7.00     C8.9
 
realized                                                                                      C2.0