Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.00328e-05           1           3          80          15           1        C4.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.34358e-05           2           2          78          18           0        C3.8
GOES Xray  =   1.46029e-07           1           4          81          14           0        C2.7
est. ISN   =       128.000           1           0          51          41           7        C9.2
 
together                             1.00        2.25       72.75       22.00        2.00     C4.0
 
realized                                                                                      M1.6