Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.15233e-05           1           1          68          27           3        C5.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.72593e-05           1           2          68          27           2        C5.0
GOES Xray  =   1.36140e-07           1           7          79          13           0        C2.5
est. ISN   =       94.0000           1           0          69          25           5        C6.1
 
together                             0.50        3.00       71.00       23.00        2.50     C4.2
 
realized                                                                                      C2.5