Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.27400e-05           5          26          63           6           0        C1.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.23331e-05           3          23          68           6           0        C1.7
GOES Xray  =   6.15687e-08           7          71          21           1           0        B6.7
est. ISN   =       91.0000           1           0          74          20           5        C4.7
 
together                             4.00       30.00       56.50        8.25        1.25     C1.7
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)