Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.64791e-05           1          14          77           8           0        C2.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.39895e-05           1          14          79           6           0        C2.0
GOES Xray  =   1.08831e-07           2          24          71           3           0        C1.4
est. ISN   =       77.0000           1           9          59          28           3        C4.9
 
together                             1.00       15.50       71.50       11.25        0.75     C2.2
 
realized                                                                                      C1.7