Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.31802e-05           1           3          78          18           0        C3.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.36040e-05           1           3          80          16           0        C3.7
GOES Xray  =   1.33231e-07           1           9          79          11           0        C2.4
est. ISN   =       65.0000           4          10          63          21           2        C3.8
 
together                             1.50        6.50       75.00       16.50        0.50     C3.1
 
realized                                                                                      C2.6