Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.21436e-05           1           4          77          18           0        C3.6
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.37689e-05           1           3          81          15           0        C3.4
GOES Xray  =   1.33674e-07           1           9          79          11           0        C2.4
est. ISN   =       71.0000           1           3          60          32           4        C5.4
 
together                             0.50        5.25       74.25       19.00        1.00     C3.2
 
realized                                                                                      C1.7