Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.09402e-05           1           3          80          16           0        C3.6
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.78536e-05           2           7          80          10           1        C2.9
GOES Xray  =   1.30643e-07           1          11          78          10           0        C2.1
est. ISN   =       66.0000           3           7          70          19           1        C3.2
 
together                             1.50        7.25       77.00       13.75        0.50     C2.8
 
realized                                                                                      C3.0