Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.77476e-05           1           4          51          40           4        C8.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.38449e-05           1           2          56          38           3        C8.1
GOES Xray  =   2.34147e-07           1           1          61          33           4        C6.7
est. ISN   =       72.0000           1           5          54          36           4        C7.0
 
together                             0.75        3.25       55.50       36.75        3.75     C7.3
 
realized                                                                                      C2.4