Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   6.18303e-05           1           0          48          42           9        M1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.79291e-05           1           1          45          42          11        M1.1
GOES Xray  =   2.88892e-07           1           0          30          56          13        M1.8
est. ISN   =       67.0000           1           7          68          23           1        C3.9
 
together                             0.50        2.00       48.25       40.75        8.50     C9.9
 
realized                                                                                      M1.4