Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.77150e-05           1           4          51          40           4        C8.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.29977e-05           1           4          58          34           3        C7.5
GOES Xray  =   2.54108e-07           1           0          47          42          10        M1.0
est. ISN   =       87.0000           1           0          66          28           5        C6.0
 
together                             0.75        2.00       55.75       36.00        5.50     C8.3
 
realized                                                                                      C4.7