Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.04004e-05           1           0          44          42          13        M1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.19983e-05           1           1          43          41          14        M1.1
GOES Xray  =   2.43705e-07           1           0          41          50           8        M1.1
est. ISN   =       89.0000           1           0          75          20           4        C4.6
 
together                             0.50        0.50       51.00       38.25        9.75     C9.6
 
realized                                                                                      M4.3