Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.75975e-05           1           4          51          41           3        C8.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.64418e-05           1           0          46          45           8        M1.0
GOES Xray  =   2.36946e-07           1           1          56          36           6        C7.5
est. ISN   =       87.0000           1           0          66          28           5        C6.0
 
together                             0.25        1.75       55.00       37.50        5.50     C8.4
 
realized                                                                                      X1.9