Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.19210e-05           1           0          39          49          11        M1.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.38459e-05           1           1          40          47          11        M1.4
GOES Xray  =   2.55150e-07           1           0          46          43          10        M1.1
est. ISN   =       69.0000           1           5          68          24           2        C4.2
 
together                             0.50        1.75       48.50       40.75        8.50     C9.9
 
realized                                                                                      M1.0