Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.50123e-05           1           0          48          43           8        M1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.28521e-05           1           1          40          43          15        M1.3
GOES Xray  =   2.56282e-07           1           0          44          47           8        M1.1
est. ISN   =       79.0000           1           4          65          26           4        C5.0
 
together                             0.75        1.25       49.50       39.75        8.75     C9.8
 
realized                                                                                      M3.7