Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.84483e-05           1           2          51          37           9        C8.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.13284e-05           1           2          57          38           2        C7.7
GOES Xray  =   2.29620e-07           1           1          67          27           4        C6.4
est. ISN   =       101.000           1           1          67          26           5        C5.5
 
together                             0.50        2.00       60.50       32.00        5.00     C7.0
 
realized                                                                                      M1.4