Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.38242e-05           1           1          54          37           7        C8.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.72322e-05           1           2          68          27           2        C5.0
GOES Xray  =   2.49284e-07           1           0          42          48           9        M1.1
est. ISN   =       120.000           1           0          51          41           7        C9.2
 
together                             0.50        1.00       54.00       38.25        6.25     C8.5
 
realized                                                                                      C3.5