Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.89888e-05           2           5          69          24           0        C4.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.47365e-05           1           2          83          14           0        C3.7
GOES Xray  =   1.95373e-07           1           1          75          22           1        C4.1
est. ISN   =       113.000           1           0          55          36           8        C8.4
 
together                             0.75        2.25       70.75       24.00        2.25     C4.7
 
realized                                                                                      C2.6