Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.99075e-05           1           0          48          42           9        M1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.04582e-05           1           1          45          42          11        M1.1
GOES Xray  =   2.64529e-07           1           0          37          53           9        M1.6
est. ISN   =       114.000           1           0          51          41           7        C9.2
 
together                             0.25        0.25       46.00       44.50        9.00     M1.1
 
realized                                                                                      C5.2