Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.16699e-05           1           0          35          50          14        M1.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.34880e-05           1           3          53          39           4        C8.5
GOES Xray  =   2.39944e-07           1           0          44          48           7        M1.1
est. ISN   =       98.0000           1           1          68          25           5        C5.9
 
together                             0.50        1.25       50.25       40.50        7.50     C9.4
 
realized                                                                                      M1.9