Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.12429e-05           1           0          40          44          15        M1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.02118e-05           1           2          36          48          13        M1.4
GOES Xray  =   2.58775e-07           1           0          42          49           8        M1.3
est. ISN   =       87.0000           1           0          66          28           5        C6.0
 
together                             0.25        0.50       46.75       42.25       10.25     M1.0
 
realized                                                                                      C7.9