Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.90376e-05           1           0          48          42           9        M1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.81707e-05           1           1          45          42          11        M1.1
GOES Xray  =   2.62359e-07           1           0          36          55           8        M1.6
est. ISN   =       84.0000           1           1          59          34           5        C6.8
 
together                             0.50        0.50       47.50       43.25        8.25     M1.0
 
realized                                                                                      C6.0