Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.29192e-05           1           0          39          47          13        M1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.46266e-05           1           1          42          46          10        M1.2
GOES Xray  =   2.28486e-07           1           1          68          28           2        C6.5
est. ISN   =       92.0000           1           0          76          18           5        C4.7
 
together                             0.50        0.75       56.50       34.75        7.50     C8.4
 
realized                                                                                      C2.7