Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.41451e-05           1           0          44          44          11        M1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.56830e-05           1           1          45          43          10        M1.1
GOES Xray  =   2.60271e-07           1           0          40          51           8        M1.3
est. ISN   =       95.0000           1           0          70          24           5        C5.6
 
together                             0.50        0.25       50.25       40.50        8.50     C9.9
 
realized                                                                                      C6.1