Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.88237e-05           1           0          54          36           9        C8.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.66615e-05           1           0          47          43           9        M1.0
GOES Xray  =   2.55212e-07           1           0          46          43          10        M1.1
est. ISN   =       96.0000           1           0          64          29           6        C6.5
 
together                             0.25        0.50       53.00       37.75        8.50     C8.8
 
realized                                                                                      C4.9