Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.41270e-05           1           1          48          43           7        M1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.42383e-05           1           1          62          33           3        C7.5
GOES Xray  =   2.01314e-07           1           0          75          23           1        C4.3
est. ISN   =       99.0000           1           1          67          26           5        C6.1
 
together                             0.25        1.50       63.00       31.25        4.00     C6.4
 
realized                                                                                      C2.6