Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.50883e-05           1          16          77           6           0        C2.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.41455e-05           1          13          78           8           0        C2.1
GOES Xray  =   1.33508e-07           1           9          80          10           0        C2.4
est. ISN   =       91.0000           1           0          74          20           5        C4.7
 
together                             0.50       10.00       77.25       11.00        1.25     C2.5
 
realized                                                                                      C1.9