Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.76973e-05           1           4          50          41           4        C8.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.93497e-05           1           0          68          30           1        C6.3
GOES Xray  =   2.40460e-07           1           0          40          51           8        M1.2
est. ISN   =       91.0000           1           0          74          20           5        C4.7
 
together                             0.50        1.25       58.25       35.50        4.50     C7.5
 
realized                                                                                      C1.5