Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.92428e-05           2           5          65          28           0        C4.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.59042e-05           1           1          80          17           1        C4.5
GOES Xray  =   1.82046e-07           1           2          84          12           1        C3.6
est. ISN   =       86.0000           1           0          61          32           6        C7.0
 
together                             1.00        2.25       72.50       22.25        2.00     C4.4
 
realized                                                                                      C1.4