Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.10525e-05           1           0          43          42          14        M1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.35309e-05           1           1          40          46          12        M1.4
GOES Xray  =   2.29608e-07           1           1          68          27           3        C6.4
est. ISN   =       68.0000           1           8          67          23           1        C3.8
 
together                             0.50        2.75       54.75       34.50        7.50     C7.5
 
realized                                                                                      C3.2