Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.37372e-05           1           1          55          35           8        C8.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.42670e-05           1           1          63          32           3        C7.3
GOES Xray  =   2.03170e-07           1           0          74          24           1        C4.4
est. ISN   =       92.0000           1           0          76          18           5        C4.7
 
together                             0.25        1.25       67.00       27.25        4.25     C6.0
 
realized                                                                                      C3.8