Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.18453e-05           1           3          78          18           0        C3.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.12574e-05           1           4          73          22           0        C3.8
GOES Xray  =   1.51391e-07           1           6          84           9           0        C2.4
est. ISN   =       86.0000           1           0          61          32           6        C7.0
 
together                             1.00        3.25       74.00       20.25        1.50     C3.7
 
realized                                                                                      C1.4