Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.49251e-05           1           2          47          45           5        M1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.87891e-05           1           0          70          27           2        C5.2
GOES Xray  =   2.08697e-07           1           0          73          23           3        C4.6
est. ISN   =       85.0000           1           1          59          34           5        C7.0
 
together                             1.00        0.75       62.25       32.25        3.75     C6.4
 
realized                                                                                      C1.7