Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.81625e-05           2           4          72          22           0        C4.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.40623e-05           1           3          81          15           0        C3.4
GOES Xray  =   2.18808e-07           1           0          64          31           4        C6.5
est. ISN   =       103.000           1           1          66          28           4        C5.5
 
together                             1.00        2.25       70.75       24.00        2.00     C4.8
 
realized                                                                                      C1.3