Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.74534e-05           2           2          78          18           0        C4.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.27730e-05           2           3          75          20           0        C3.8
GOES Xray  =   1.56570e-07           1           5          78          16           0        C2.9
est. ISN   =       108.000           1           0          59          33           7        C8.2
 
together                             1.00        3.00       72.50       21.75        1.75     C4.2
 
realized                                                                                      C4.8