Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.36618e-05           1           1          57          33           8        C7.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.21653e-05           1           4          55          38           2        C7.7
GOES Xray  =   1.93231e-07           1           0          76          22           1        C4.1
est. ISN   =       101.000           1           1          67          26           5        C5.5
 
together                             0.50        2.00       63.75       29.75        4.00     C6.2
 
realized                                                                                      C6.9