Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.29920e-05           5          25          65           5           0        C1.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.81859e-05           2           7          81           9           1        C2.9
GOES Xray  =   7.60249e-08           7          62          28           3           0        B7.9
est. ISN   =       101.000           1           1          67          26           5        C5.5
 
together                             3.75       23.75       60.25       10.75        1.50     C2.1
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)