Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.52209e-05           1           3          75          19           2        C3.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.93505e-05           1           7          80          11           1        C2.6
GOES Xray  =   1.45794e-07           1           4          81          14           0        C2.7
est. ISN   =       76.0000           1           9          59          28           3        C4.9
 
together                             1.00        5.75       73.75       18.00        1.50     C3.3
 
realized                                                                                      C3.1