Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.53203e-05           9          49          39           3           0        B8.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.64969e-05           5          46          43           6           0        B9.9
GOES Xray  =   1.32682e-07           1           9          80          10           0        C2.2
est. ISN   =       51.0000           1          17          68          13           1        C2.2
 
together                             3.50       30.75       57.50        8.00        0.25     C1.4
 
realized                                                                                      C1.7