Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.90727e-05           2           5          70          23           0        C4.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.99751e-05           1           0          69          28           2        C6.0
GOES Xray  =   2.20036e-07           1           0          63          33           3        C6.7
est. ISN   =       52.0000           1          18          65          15           1        C2.1
 
together                             0.75        6.25       66.75       24.75        1.50     C4.7
 
realized                                                                                      C7.5