Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.66745e-05           1           0          48          42           9        M1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.96478e-05           1           1          45          42          11        M1.1
GOES Xray  =   2.14708e-07           1           1          68          27           3        C5.4
est. ISN   =       38.0000           6          50          37           7           0        B8.8
 
together                             2.00       13.00       49.75       29.50        5.75     C6.0
 
realized                                                                                      C1.3